Australian university enrolments in ICT just fell off a cliff. Just 7,686 incoming students chose technology degrees this year — down from 9,750 last year, a 21% drop. ACS CEO Josh Griggs called it a "wake-up call for Australia."
The worry driving students away is understandable. If AI can write code, crunch numbers, and draft reports, why spend three years and tens of thousands in HECS-HELP debt on a degree that might be obsolete by graduation day?
It's a fair question. But the data tells a more complicated story than "degrees are dead."
The Degrees Facing the Most AI Exposure
We scored 358 Australian occupations for AI risk using Jobs and Skills Australia and ABS data. When you group those occupations by qualification level, a pattern emerges.
Jobs that typically require a bachelor's degree (skill level 1) have an average AI exposure score of 4.8 out of 10 — the second-highest of any qualification tier. Diploma-level jobs (skill level 2) score even higher at 5.0. Meanwhile, trade certificate jobs (skill level 3) average just 3.6.
In plain terms: degree-level white-collar work faces more AI exposure than hands-on trade work. That much lines up with the gut feeling pushing students away from uni.
Among the 123 degree-level occupations in our dataset, 12.2% score 6.0 or above — what we'd call high AI exposure. The most exposed include:
- Financial dealers — AI score 7.1 (20,100 employed)
- Software and applications programmers — AI score 6.7 (195,400 employed)
- Economists — AI score 6.5 (4,500 employed)
- Journalists and other writers — AI score 6.4 (22,600 employed)
- ICT business and systems analysts — AI score 6.4 (51,500 employed)
These are jobs where a large share of day-to-day tasks — analysis, drafting, pattern recognition, data processing — sit squarely in AI's capability zone.
The Paradox Nobody Is Talking About
Here's where it gets interesting. Several of those high-exposure occupations are also rated Shortage by Jobs and Skills Australia. Software programmers score 6.7 for AI risk but remain in shortage. Actuaries, mathematicians and statisticians score 6.4 and are also in shortage.
How can a job be both highly exposed to AI and desperately needed?
Because AI exposure doesn't mean AI replacement. The JSA Generative AI Capacity Study found that 55% of workplace tasks could be performed by people using AI, with another 15% potentially automatable. The emphasis is on augmentation — AI makes existing workers more productive, which can actually increase demand for the humans who know how to use it well.
PwC's 2025 Global AI Jobs Barometer backs this up. In Australia, jobs exposed to AI augmentation grew 47% between 2019 and 2024. And workers with advanced AI skills commanded a 56% wage premium — up from 25% the year before.
The degree isn't the problem. The problem is getting a degree and then ignoring AI entirely.
Where Degree Requirements Are Falling
PwC also tracked something else worth watching. The share of job postings requiring a formal degree has been dropping, and it's dropping fastest in AI-exposed roles.
For jobs that AI augments, degree requirements fell from 66% in 2019 to 59% in 2024. For jobs that AI automates, they fell from 53% to 44%. Employers are starting to care less about the piece of paper and more about whether you can actually do the work — especially with AI tools.
Less than 2% of organisations now consider a traditional university degree necessary for entry-level roles, according to PwC's research. That's a striking number. It doesn't mean degrees are worthless, but it does mean a degree alone isn't the competitive advantage it used to be.
The Degrees Sitting in the Safety Zone
Not all degree-level jobs face high AI exposure. Of the 123 bachelor-or-above occupations in our data, 14.6% score below 4.0 — relatively safe territory.
Health is the standout. Registered nurses score 3.0 with 333,900 people employed and a shortage rating. Midwives score 2.7. Physiotherapists, occupational therapists, and speech pathologists all sit below 4.0. These roles combine human judgement, physical interaction, and emotional care — things AI can assist with but not perform.
The health sector is also Australia's fastest-growing employer. Between training pathways, clinical placements, and the sheer demand for hands-on care, healthcare degrees remain about as future-proof as any qualification gets.
Engineering, environmental science, and veterinary science degrees also feed into occupations with moderate to low AI exposure and solid employment growth.
TAFE Is Not a Consolation Prize
The real story in the data isn't "don't go to uni." It's that Australia's binary thinking about university versus TAFE doesn't match reality.
Trade certificate occupations (skill level 3) have the lowest average AI exposure of any qualification tier at 3.6 out of 10. Concreters score 1.9, building labourers score 2.0, and electricians score 2.8 — all with strong demand and many rated Shortage.
Australia's trades are also among the best-paid paths that don't require a degree. Mining electricians average $154,000 per year. The skilled trades shortage means employers are competing for workers, not the other way around.
For a school leaver weighing options, a TAFE-trained electrician faces less AI disruption, earns a strong salary, and enters the workforce years earlier than a university graduate — without the HECS debt.
That doesn't make uni the wrong choice. It makes it a choice that should be made with eyes open about which field you're entering and how exposed that field is to AI.
What Actually Matters Now
The ICT enrolment collapse is a warning, but not the one most people think. The risk isn't that technology degrees are becoming useless — it's that Australia is producing fewer technology graduates just as every industry needs people who understand AI.
Australia had 2,000 job postings requiring AI skills in 2012. By 2024, that figure was 23,000. The country targets 1.2 million tech workers by 2030, but with fewer students entering the pipeline, that goal looks increasingly out of reach.
The students fleeing ICT may be right that coding alone won't cut it. But they're wrong if they think avoiding technology is the safe play. AI literacy is now the most in-demand skill across Australian industries, not just tech. Eight in ten employers prefer candidates comfortable with AI tools, even over those with more experience.
Whether you choose uni, TAFE, a bootcamp, or on-the-job learning, the qualification matters less than what you do with it. A three-year degree followed by a career of ignoring AI tools is a worse bet than a six-month certificate paired with genuine curiosity about how AI changes your field.
Check Your Own Occupation
Wondering where your career or planned career sits? Search any of Australia's 358 occupations on our how safe am I quiz or browse the full rankings to see AI exposure scores, employment data, and shortage ratings — all drawn from official Australian government sources. You can also explore risk patterns by sector on our industries page.