Few AI questions get asked more often than this one. Self-driving trucks have been "just around the corner" for a decade. Headlines about autonomous vehicles paint a picture of an industry about to be wiped out.
The Australian data tells a different story.
What the numbers actually show
Australia employs 183,600 truck drivers, and the occupation carries an AI exposure score of just 3.2 out of 10. According to Jobs and Skills Australia, only 21% of truck driving tasks are exposed to automation by generative AI, while 56% could be augmented — meaning AI helps drivers do their jobs better, not replaces them.
That puts truck drivers among the lower-risk occupations in Australia, roughly on par with concreters and panelbeaters.
The median age of Australian truck drivers is 45, just 6% are women, and the occupation is in official shortage. Drivers earn a median of $1,960 per week. This is not a workforce being pushed out — it's one the country can't fill.
Autonomous trucks are coming, but slowly
In 2022, Transurban ran Australia's first live-traffic trial of a highly automated truck on Melbourne's CityLink and Monash Freeway. A second trial in 2024, using Level 4 autonomous Iveco trucks with software from Plus, planned to run two driverless trucks overnight between the Port of Melbourne and Dandenong.
The Transport Workers Union forced a pause. The trial was adapted so that human drivers remained in control at all times, with the autonomous system running in "shadow mode" — monitoring but not driving.
The National Transport Commission is developing the Automated Vehicle Safety Law (AVSL), with a realistic finalisation target of 2027. The Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics forecasts "small numbers of automated vehicles entering the Australian market from 2026" with Level 4 vehicles arriving between 2026 and 2031.
In mining, it's moving faster. Scania is deploying fully driverless mining trucks in commercial operations during 2026, partnering with Australian mining services provider Regroup. Rio Tinto and BHP have used autonomous haulage systems at remote Western Australian sites for years.
But public roads are a different matter. Long highway routes between major cities are the most likely candidates for early autonomous trucking. Local deliveries, complex urban routes, and hazardous materials transport will need human drivers for a long time yet.
Road freight is growing, not shrinking
Australian road freight is forecast to grow 77% between 2020 and 2050. That means more trucks on roads, not fewer.
The International Road Transport Union found 3.6 million unfilled driving positions across 36 countries that contribute 70% of global GDP. In those same countries, 3.4 million drivers are projected to retire by 2030, with only 6.5% of the current workforce aged 25 or under.
Australia mirrors this global pattern. The industry struggles to attract younger workers, and autonomous technology is more likely to address the shortage than to cause mass unemployment among existing drivers.
Delivery drivers — a related but distinct occupation — have a higher AI score of 5.1 and employment of 84,900. But even here, employment has grown 13.1% over five years, driven by the e-commerce boom. AI-powered route optimisation and automated dispatch are changing how deliveries work, but someone still needs to carry the parcel to your door.
The real risk is behind the wheel, not in it
The surprise in the transport data is not the drivers. It's the people managing the paperwork.
Transport and despatch clerks have an AI score of 6.6, with 64% of their tasks exposed to automation. These are the workers coordinating shipments, tracking freight, and processing documentation — tasks that generative AI handles well.
Purchasing and supply logistics clerks score 6.2, with 58% automation exposure across a workforce of 126,900. Procurement, inventory tracking, and supplier management are being reshaped by AI systems that can forecast demand, optimise stock levels, and automate purchase orders.
Transport services managers sit at 5.4, reflecting the growing role of AI in fleet management, route planning, and logistics strategy.
Compare that to the physical roles: forklift drivers score 2.9, freight and furniture handlers score 3.8, and truck drivers score 3.2. The pattern is clear — the more your job involves moving physical things in unpredictable environments, the safer you are from AI.
A workforce of 865,000
Transport and logistics is one of Australia's largest employment sectors. Across 12 key occupations, the numbers add up:
| Occupation | AI Score | Employment | Shortage? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truck Drivers | 3.2 | 183,600 | Shortage |
| Storepersons | 4.2 | 164,200 | — |
| Purchasing & Supply Logistics Clerks | 6.2 | 126,900 | — |
| Delivery Drivers | 5.1 | 84,900 | — |
| Forklift Drivers | 2.9 | 69,000 | — |
| Automobile Drivers | 4.5 | 50,500 | — |
| Transport & Despatch Clerks | 6.6 | 45,900 | — |
| Couriers & Postal Deliverers | 4.6 | 44,200 | — |
| Bus & Coach Drivers | 4.3 | 40,300 | Shortage |
| Transport Services Managers | 5.4 | 22,000 | — |
| Train & Tram Drivers | 4.2 | 18,700 | Regional |
| Freight & Furniture Handlers | 3.8 | 15,200 | — |
The split is stark. Physical transport roles — driving, handling, operating — cluster between 2.9 and 4.6. Administrative and coordination roles — clerking, dispatching, managing — sit between 5.4 and 6.6.
If you drive a truck, your job is among the safest from AI in the country. If you manage the logistics behind that truck, you're in a different position.
What this means for you
The autonomous truck headlines are not wrong — the technology is real and it's being tested on Australian roads. But the timeline is measured in decades, not months. Current laws don't allow autonomous vehicles on public roads without a human operator, and the new safety regulations won't be finalised until at least 2027.
For the 183,600 Australians driving trucks right now, the bigger concern is the same one the industry has faced for years: an ageing workforce, difficulty attracting new entrants, and growing freight demand. AI is more likely to be the solution to the driver shortage than the cause of job losses.
For workers in logistics administration, the picture is different. Generative AI is already capable of handling freight documentation, demand forecasting, inventory management, and supplier communications. The 172,800 Australians working as transport clerks and supply logistics clerks should be paying close attention to how their roles are changing.
Want to see where your occupation sits? Check your AI risk score or compare occupations side by side. You can also browse all 358 occupations on the full rankings page.